As Iowa caucus results continue to flow in, as unreliable as they may be, it could spell victory or disaster for just about any of the top four Democratic candidates. However, for former Vice President Joe Biden, he has made it clear that he will not be relying on Iowa to spell out his future for him.
In fact, the frontrunner told the press outside of his Des Moines field office on Monday that he would continue, no matter what the results said about him.
According to Marianna Sotomayor of NBC News, Biden said, “We’re gonna survive all the way through this whole thing.”
Though at this point, it looks like it might be a struggle, at least as far as Iowa goes.
Usually, we would have long past had the results of the Iowa caucuses by now. However, due to a couple of technical setbacks, we are still waiting. And time can only tell when any substantial information will be released.
The first problem occurred with the much-anticipated Des Moines Register/CNN poll. The poll historically can accurately predict who will win the caucuses and is released just hours before the caucuses open.
However, this year the caucuses proceeded without the information the polls could have given. White House hopeful and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, got reports that a few of the surveys for the poll didn’t accurately display all the correct candidates’ names and thus would have given inaccurate results. And therefore, the poll in its entirety was scrapped and not released on any official terms.
A few outlets such as FiveThirtyEight did get the unofficial results somehow and posted them. Not surprisingly, they show Senator Bernie Sanders in the lead. Sanders also did well in Iowa in 2016.
But many were shocked by the lack of support for Joe Biden. While Sanders is predicted to come in at around 22%, Biden is in fourth place with just 13%.
And according to the results we have so far for Iowa precinct caucuses, those unofficial results are looking to be holding true. Reports are coming in from multiple precincts that Biden isn’t even viable, which means he has gotten less than 15% of the support he needs to continue to the next phase of the caucuses.
Dave Wasserman says, “Widespread reports of Joe Biden barely/not viable in types of precincts he should be to have any type of chance. Having a hard time seeing him in the top three…long way to go.”
Take the Davenport precinct, for example. He needed 44 votes and only got 27.
For Cedar Falls, IA, it looks even worse, with only three people pledging their support for him.
But at this point, it’s hard to say for sure what these results will mean.
And that leads us to the Iowa Democratic Party’s second major problem: the caucus results themselves. As I mentioned, we are still waiting for the results. It seems that the app the Iowa Democratic Party opted to use to record their precinct results has mal-functioned to some extent.
A statement made by the party said it noticed some “inconsistencies” with what the app was reporting and thus they have had to scramble to find other ways to get their results in, such as having precinct captains for the party take pictures of their counts and then send them to their higher-ups.
To say the process is a complete disaster is a vast understatement.
But regardless of what Iowa says, Biden seems to be determined to make it through. Even though Iowa caucus winners usually predict the Democratic nominee, it isn’t always correct. After all, it is only one state, albeit an important one to win.
And typically, whatever happens in Iowa, the next state to hold caucuses, New Hampshire, follows suit.
This means that for Biden, the real race may begin in South Carolina, where he has much more support and from a demographic that most other candidates seem to be lacking in. Iowa, on the other hand, and its caucuses to be more specific, seem to be full of people that Biden hasn’t been too great at grabbing hold of, namely those who are whiter, younger, and more progressive. This makes the outcome unreliable and not at all an accurate representation of Democrat primary voters, which may prove to beneficial to Biden.
Either way, it will be interesting to see just how far Biden thinks he can actually take this.